欢喜贺岁红【翻页查看英文原文】PuttingasidetheongoingwarofwordsbetweenBeijingandTokyosurroundingJapanesePrimeMinisterSanaeTakaichisstatementsonTaiwanlastmonth,thereisasimplequestionthatneedsanswering.CanJapansSelf-DefenceForcesreallyaffordtofightthePeoplesLiberationArmy(PLA)withoutAmericanmilitarysupport?TakaichisanswerappearstobethatJapansmilitarymustdoso.ThelegislationapprovedbyJapansDietinSeptember2015allowedthecountrytoexerciseitsrightofcollectiveself-defence–albeitonlytoalimiteddegree–evenifJapanisnotdirectlyattacked.Therearethreeconditionsonactingonthisright:ifanattackagainstaforeigncountrywithwhichJapanhascloserelationsthreatensJapanssurvival;ifthereisnootherappropriatemeanstorepeltheattackandensureJapanssurvivalandprotectitspeople;andthattheuseofforcemustbelimitedtotheminimumextentnecessary.Taiwanisnotaforeigncountry,ofcourse.EvenifaconflictdidbreakoutacrosstheTaiwanStraitandafewstraybombsaccidentallyfellintothewatersoffYonaguni,Japanswesternmostinhabitedisland,howcouldthatbeinterpretedasathreattoJapanssurvival?ThesameyearthatJapanpasseditsself-defencelegislation,afewartilleryshellsfromMyanmargovernmentforceslandedinavillageinYunnanprovince,injuringfivevillagers.TheissuewasresolvedquietlybecausetheChinesegovernmentsawitasanaccident.TheonlyterritorialdisputebetweenBeijingandTokyoisovertheDiaoyuIslands,whichJapancallstheSenkakus.Althoughbothhavecoastguardshipssailinginthewatersofftheislands,thetwomilitarieshavemaintainedakindoftacitagreementofnotsendingtheirnavalvesselsintothedisputedwaters.IftheprospectofChinaandJapancomingtoblowsoverdisp容志行utedterritoryissounlikely,itwouldberidiculousforthemtostartfightingoverTaiwan.Eveniftheydid,thereisnowayJapancouldwininanyscenario.Plus,ifBeijingsawTokyosmilitaryinvolvementoverTaiwanasagiven,whywouldntthePLAlaunchapre-emptivestrikeonJapaneseforces?TakaichiisinvitingtheveryconflictshesaysshewantstopreventbyraisingthepossibilityofJapaneseintervention.TherearethreelayersofstrategicambiguityaroundtheTaiwanissue,stemmingfromChina,theUnitedStatesandWashingtonsAsianallies.Beijingseespeacefulreunificationasthebestoutcomeandbelievestimeisonitsside.ThiscanbeseeninBeijingstillmentioningpeaceacrossthestraitdespitetheDemocraticProgressivePartyholdingtheTaiwanpresidencyfortwoconsecutiveadministrations.USstrategicambiguitiesaretwofold.Thefirstisitsone-Chinapolicy,whichisslipperyenoughthatitseemsitcantakeanyshapeatanytime.TheotherisitscontinuedrefusaltospecifywhetheritwouldassistTaiwanmilitarilyintheeventofanattackbythePLA.ThisapproachismeanttodeterTaiwanfromdeclaringindependence,whilekeepingopenthepossibilityofUSmilitaryinterventionismeanttodissuadeBeijingfromlaunchinganattackandreunifyingthroughforce.ThentherearetheUSalliesinAsia.Japanisobligedtoprovidelogisticalsupportandbasesintheeventofawar.However,whenPentagonofficialspressedJapanandAustraliainJulytoclarifywhatroletheywouldplayifChinaandtheUSwenttowaroverTaiwan,neithertargetwouldcommittoahypotheticalmilitaryconflictinadvanceandsaidthatanydecisionwouldhavetobemadebythegovernmentoftheday.ThisrefusaltostakeoutaclearpositionisunderstandableasthereislittlereasonforalliestocommitthemselveswhentheUSitselfmaintainsitsstrategicambiguity.Theselayersofstrategicambiguityfrommultiplepartiescreateachainreaction.AslongasBeijingbelievespeacefulreunificationisstillpossible,itisunlikelytoresorttomilitaryforceagainstTaiwan.Shortofthat,thereisnoneedfortheUStogiveupitsstrategicambiguity.AndaslongastheUSmaintainsthatstrategicambiguity,thereislittlepointinJapanraisingTaiwanasanissue.DuringaninterviewwithJapanesetelevisioninFebruary2022,then-JapaneseprimeministerShinzoAbecalledontheUStodropitsstrategicambiguityregardingthedefenceofTaiwan.Abereiteratedhisoft-repeatednotionthataTaiwancontingencyisaJapancontingencyandthattheestablishmentofmainlandChineseairandseasuperiorityaroundTaiwanwouldaffectJapansterritorialwaters.Thisisthetailwaggingthedog.Infact,astheimportanceofTaiwanrecedesunderamoreisolationistUSpresidency,Washingtonmightmoveintheoppositedirectiontowardsgreaterstrategicclarity.USPresidentDonaldTrumpsdesiretoreachagrandbargainwithChinaontradeissuesisastrongincentivenottosupportantagonisingthemainlandandbeingdraggedintoawaroverTaiwan.AccordingtoareportinTheWallStreetJournallastweek,TrumptoldTakaichiduringaphonecalltotemperhertoneonTaiwan.ThatcalltookplacehoursafterTrumpspoketoPresidentXiJinping.Unsurprisingly,Japanesegovernmentofficialsdeniedtheclaimsmadeinthereport.TakaichisstatementonTaiwanwasapoliticalact,aimedatshoringupherstandingwithadomesticaudience.Itwillnotgodowninhistoryasausefullegacy.Inacountrywhereprimeministersoftenlastlessthanayearinoffice,herremarksaremerelyripplesthatwillsoondisappear.点击进入专题：高市早苗涉台错误言论遭批。

这批文物刚调拨至江苏省文物总店的第二天，中国陆挺就已完成购买手续，将这幅《江南春》图卷带回了家。此前南京博物院通过相关媒体公布了一张落款时间为2001年、年｜面额仅6800元的《仿仇英山水卷》等文物销售底单，年｜这张被南博处置证据引来了更多的疑问，谁是文物销售底单上神秘的顾客？又是谁，在二十多年后，将南博处理掉的《江南春》图卷以8800万元的天价送上拍卖场？《澎湃新闻|艺术评论》连续多日通过调查发现，2025年5月将《江南春》图卷送上拍卖场的送拍人，并非此前收藏这一画作的南京收藏家陆挺，而是另外一位买家——宁波人朱光。容志行

光影调查处理情况将及时向社会公布。房飘最著名的便是书圣王羲之的《兰亭序》。至于专家具体从容志行哪些方面、欢喜贺岁红依据什么标准判定为假画，记录中并未展现。

诗人袁永之、中国话雨楼王任堂、过云楼顾麟士、虚斋庞莱臣等都收藏过。不一会儿，年｜徐湖平头戴帽子，年｜身穿灰色羽绒服，与妻子一起打开大门，听到澎湃新闻来访的目的是请其回应关于南博划拨单上的院长签名，徐湖平回复说：你要是真的爱护老人家，就不要问了。

对于2001年售出《仿仇英山水卷》与陆挺早在90年代即收藏此画的矛盾上，光影也有艺术收藏人士对澎湃新闻分析不排除先上车后补票的可能。

艺兰斋得名于陆挺收藏的匾额，房飘于1996年12月注册。背后，欢喜贺岁红则是西方两大阵营的渐行渐远。

盟友与对手，中国有时也就一线之隔，当利益的齿轮开始转动，理想主义的润滑油就总显得不够。被制裁的布雷东，年｜痛骂美国又在搞麦卡锡式的政治迫害。

欧洲你加强管理，光影罚款不手软，但罚的很多是美国人的钱。欧洲制定数字政策，房飘美国反对也就反对吧，这是欧洲自家的事情，但美国开始大棒挥舞，直接制裁了制定数字政策的欧洲官员。